Behind the numbers

It has been a week since we entered the Star Atlas Metaverse and it has come with warm welcome and positivity. It is clear that the community around Star Atlas is looking for the type of analysis and insight we are working hard to provide.

Our featured data visualisation has been a hit with the community with over 1,000 users logging in and a daily return rate of 57%. This gives us some insight that the community is interested and at-least half come back each day to follow the metrics.

Featured Data Visualisation

We strive on listening to the community and helping out where we can. A recent twitter follower posted some feedback which prompted this post you are reading.

@DeanKrammer “Just found out about your work. Awesome analysis! You’d get tons of views if you had a YouTube channel explaining some of your findings. Just a quick question: Is the market yield a daily value?”

Behind The Numbers

The easy part is dumping data the hard part is figuring out how to calculate and aggregate the numbers so that they actually help players. If you take a look at the first visualisation you encounter on the dashboard:

Daily Net Yield

Daily Net Yield

Daily Net Yield seems like a simple enough measure. If your playing to maximise returns its an extremely valuable metric because it helps you select which ships on that particular day will provide the best returns daily. But like our follower above, questions start to emerge. What is it a percentage of? How many daily measures are you averaging? All very important questions so let’s dig deeper. Its first important to understand what VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) means. This is a value set in USD that the developers of Star Atlas listed each ship on the market. It is a fixed price for each ship type and gives a floor in which all burn rates and yield rates were established. VWAP is handy because we can use this to understand average yields etc. Back to our calculation:

Daily Net Yield% = ([Daily Net yield USD] / [VWAP])

Where

Daily Net Yield USD = ([Daily Rewards USD]-[Daily Burn USD])

Where

USD = Daily exchange rate between ATLAS and USD price

Take a deep breath and read on………

Even the most simple of measures have a rabbit hole of calculations to arrive at their final destination of enlightenment. We are taking 4 daily measures so we are expressing this as an average of 4 points in time for that day. We have analysed the market and feel this is the most appropriate balance between too much detail and too little detail.

Net Monthly & Yearly Yield with compounding

Monthly and Yearly Yields

Now that we have a Net Daily Yield we can simply extrapolate out to monthly and yearly and then get an overall average across all the days for every ship. We are currently working on a way to visualise this as a measure for TODAY and not an entire average across all the data.

Keeping in mind every ship has a daily and monthly yield of ATLAS our next visual looks at the impact of taking the ATLAS emissions every month and reinvesting into that ship. This is a compounding metric and a way of accelerating your returns.

Net Yearly yield from compounding ATLAS returns

Days to Payoff

We are on the home stretch and we are starting to form a better picture of which ships are a good choice on a given day. We all want to know how many days will it take us to break even on our investment. Everyday we are calculating this metric off the current market rate of the ship i.e. if i bought this ship at current market rate how many days based on the fixed yield would it take for me to realise a return on my investment. We can plot this on a visual:

Days to Payoff including compounding

The magic here is we can also look at the number of days to payoff when compounding our ATLAS emissions based on the above Net Yearly Compounding Monthly metrics. Some of you might be asking why don’t you calculate a daily compounding figure and the answer to this is that you wont get the yield to compound invest your ships every day but you can get close by substituting with smaller ships each month. Of-course this then does not become an exact science but it gets us part way to full enlightenment.

Daily Resource Burn vs Daily yield

I feel like this one is easy now but its a good one to show the best performers in terms of yield and burn of resources. Many players don’t factor in resource investment which is why our calculations already take this into account in presenting net results. It’s still useful to see the big resource hungry ships. Tree maps are also a fantastic visual type to show multivariate with size of box and colour representing different things. In the case below size of box = daily returns and colour of box = burn rate.

Treemap visual showing yield and burn rate daily

Fair Price

Of course we need to save the best for last. Many players look to VWAP (Volume weighted average price) as a measure of floor price for ships. This makes sense because this was the price that the ship was released by the developers and any lower than that and you have yourself an absolute bargain. Certainly this holds up well when your trading in the USDC market and its just a simple flat price you can reference off. The economy is more complex than this because you also have an ATLAS market which changes value. You also have 2 market prices to look at. The Bid (this is the price players are wanting to buy ships at) and you have the Ask price (the price players are willing to sell their ships for) in any market you then have a spread (The gap between the bid and the ask price).

Market analysis by Star Dust Economy

Star Dust Economy has made it easy to see the bid and the ask and visualise the spread but we have also plotted the VWAP in the USDC market. In the ATLAS market we have introduced a new figure which we call “Fair Price”. This solves for the problem of an ever changing ATLAS exchange rate and is an expression of the VWAP in USD at the daily ATLAS exchange rate. It helps those trading on the ATLAS market to assess a good bargain in that market.

If you have any questions or feedback for what we are building please feel free to reach out to us on twitter or leave a comment here.

Hope to see you in the Metaverse!

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Star Dust Economy

Star Dust Economy

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Decrypting adventures set in a future metaverse inspired by @StarAtlas and a data runner called Shinobi